The US Senate has narrowly approved President Donald Trump’s “mega-bill” after an overnight session, sending the sweeping legislation back to the House of Representatives for a final vote.1 The vote was 51-50, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote.2
Republican leaders are aiming to get the bill cleared by the House for President Trump’s signature by their self-imposed July Fourth deadline.3 However, House approval is not guaranteed, as some GOP members have expressed frustration with the Senate’s changes to the legislation.4
Key Provisions of the “Mega-Bill”:
The nearly 1,000-page bill is a comprehensive package of Republican priorities, encompassing significant changes across various sectors:
- Tax Cuts: A core component of the bill is the extension and expansion of the 2017 tax law, making individual income tax rates permanent and some business tax breaks for investments and R&D costs also permanent. It also includes temporary tax breaks campaigned on by Trump, such as no tax on qualifying tips, overtime, or car loan interest (though these have limits for higher earners in the Senate version). The child tax credit would be boosted, and the standard deduction would be permanently expanded in the Senate version.
- Spending Cuts: To offset the tax cuts, the bill proposes substantial cuts to social safety-net programs.5 This includes slashing spending on Medicaid, with new 80-hour-a-month work requirements for many adults, including older people up to age 65 and parents of children 14 and older.6 It also shifts significant costs of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to states for the first time, with expanded work requirements.7
- Border Security and Defense: The measure would bolster spending on border security and defense by hundreds of billions of dollars.8 This includes significant funding for additional barriers along the southern border, the “golden dome” missile defense system, and increased funding for federal immigration enforcement, detention, and removal of people without permanent legal status, aiming for mass deportations.9
- Debt Limit: The bill would raise the national debt limit by $5 trillion, a figure intended to push the borrowing limit beyond next year’s midterm elections.10
- Other Provisions: The bill also overhauls federal education aid, includes new or increased fees for immigration services, reforms student loan repayment options, and contains provisions on topics like artificial intelligence, space programs, and an excise tax on university endowments.11 A controversial provision that would have barred states from regulating artificial intelligence for a decade was stripped from the bill.12
According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and other analyses, the bill could have significant economic and social impacts:
- Increased National Debt: The bill is estimated to add at least $3.3 trillion to the national debt over a decade, and potentially closer to $4 trillion when increased borrowing costs are factored in.13
- Healthcare Coverage: Analyses suggest the bill could lead to nearly 12 million more Americans losing health insurance coverage due to deep cuts to Medicaid and other healthcare programs.14
- Tax Benefits: While the bill aims to provide tax cuts for working families, analyses indicate that a large proportion of the net tax cuts would go to the wealthiest Americans, with less significant benefits for middle- and lower-income taxpayers.15
- Social Programs: The changes to Medicaid and SNAP, including new work requirements and cost shifts to states, could significantly impact millions of low-income Americans.16
The bill’s passage in the Senate marks a significant step, but its fate now rests with the House, where a close vote is anticipated.